Hal Masover | Oct 05 2026 17:18
In a few weeks we will go to the polls to elect Congressional Representatives, US Senators, state legislators, governors and a host of other lessor offices.
As citizens I encourage all of you to vote, even if it’s inconvenient, even if you’re apathetic or don’t know who to vote for. All of those pale against the sacrifice made by countless thousands over centuries to give us the right to vote. For most of us it is the only real voice we have in the way we are governed. Complaining on social media, protesting in the streets, these and other mechanisms matter in a democracy, but none of them matter as much as going to the polls and casting your ballot.
But does the outcome have any impact on your investment portfolio?
History says it does. And that effect may not be what you thought.
For generations we’ve been told that the Republican party is the party of business, that they are better for the economy and are the fiscally conservative party. For an entire generation, 24 years, I believed that was true. Imagine my surprise when I actually looked at the record.
In 2004 I reviewed the previous 100 years of economic performance. What I found was that who was president mattered the most. Which party had a majority in the House or the Senate or both had no discernable impact on the economy. But which party occupied the White House meant everything.
Over the last 22 years the results have remained consistent. Here’s the updated data over the last 100 years, 1926 to the present.
Republican Presidents Recession? Job creation Impact on National Debt
Calvin Coolidge Yes +5,000,000 ($5.4 billion)
Herbert Hoover Yes (8,000,000) +$5.6 billion
Eisenhower Yes +3,538,000 +$21.8 billion
Nixon Yes +8,421,000 +$117 billion
Reagan Yes +15,936,000 +$1.86 trillion
GHW Bush Yes +2,633,000 +$1.55 trillion
GW Bush Yes +1,353,000 +$4.9 trillion
Trump first and second to date Yes (2,128,000) +$11.6 trillion
Totals - includes all recessions 12 +26,753,000 +$20.049 trillion
Democrat Presidents Recession? Job creation Impact on National Debt
Franklin Roosevelt Yes +15,000,000 +$231 billion
Truman Yes +8,249,000 +$33 billion
Kennedy/Johnson No +15,756.000 +$68.8 billion
Carter Yes +10,342,000 +$344.5 billion
Clinton No +22,743.000 +$1.32 trillion
Obama No +11,553,000 +9.32 trillion
Biden No +16,100,000 +8.45 trillion
Totals 6 +99,743,000 +19.767 trillion
Conclusions:
Over the last century Republicans and Democrats have held the White House roughly the same amount of time. 51.5 years for Democrats and 48.5 years for Republicans. They’ve generated more or less the same amount of debt. That’s despite the Republican claim that they are the more fiscally responsible party. But if we measure that by accumulation of debt there is no evidence to support that claim.
By far the most dramatic difference is job creation. Under Democrats there have been nearly 4 times as many jobs created as under Republicans. And this trend is accelerating in the Democrats favor. So far this century Republicans have added 775,000 jobs to the economy. Democrats have added 29,400,000 jobs – over 29 times as many jobs!
Republicans tell us they are better for the economy. But what does the record show? It’s not even close. Not even remotely.
What does all this mean for investors?
If you had invested $10,000 in the stock market in1926 and only stayed invested during Republican administrations would have $11,753 today. In other words, you would have made less than 1% per year.
If you had invested $10,000 in the stock market and only stayed invested when Democrats were in office, you would have $300,671 today.
So that’s the economic and investing scorecard.
I’ve been accused of being too biased at times. The above is the record. If you don’t agree, do your own research. I really want you to because doing this research is the reason I switched parties over 20 years ago. And in the 20 years since, nothing has occurred that would suggest these trends have changed. Actually, they’ve gotten even more lopsided.
Hal Masover is a Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor and a registered representative. His firm, Investment Insights, LLC is at 508 N 2nd Street, Suite 203, Fairfield, IA 52556. Securities offered through, Cambridge Investment Research, Inc, a Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment Advisor Representative, Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor. Investment Insights, Inc & Cambridge are not affiliated. Comments and questions can be sent to hal@getyourinsight.com. These are the opinions of Hal Masover and not necessarily those of Cambridge, are for informational purposes only, and should not be construed or acted upon as individualized investment advice. Investing involves risk. Depending on the types of investments, there may be varying degrees of risk. Investors should be prepared to bear loss, including total loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.